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Telegram获取用户ID(www.tel8.vip):What next for the economy?

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,The Malaysian economy is likely to see weaker growth, estimated at 4.1%, in 2023 compared to an estimated 8.5% in 2022, reflecting largely the normalisation of technical high-base effects.

THE economy has staged a strong recovery to grow by an average of 9.3% in the first nine months of 2022, partly attributable to a low-base effect, and is estimated to end the year at 8.5% (3.1% in 2021).

The engines of growth were buoyant domestic demand and sustained expansion of exports, robust consumer spending (12.7% growth in January-September 2022) and largely pent-up demand induced by cash/financial assistance stimulus (a total of RM145bil in Employees Provident Fund or EPF withdrawals, Bantuan Keluarga Malaysia and loan repayment assistance).

Aided by a favourable low-base effect, private investment also strengthened from 3.3% in the first half of 2022 to 13.2% year-on-year in September 2022, amid increased business costs and shortage of workers.

Buoyant exports continued for two consecutive years (26.1% in 2021; 27.2% in January-November 2022), thanks to both volume and price effects as reflected in the higher demand for electronics and electrical products, chemicals, metal products, crude petroleum and liquefied natural gas.

Bank Negara has embarked on an interest rate normalisation on a measured pace as it balances between containing inflation risk and ensuring firmed economic recovery.

The benchmark overnight policy rate (OPR) was hiked by a cumulative 100 basis points (bps) in three successive times to 2.75% at end-December 2022.

Navigating the economy in 2023

The Malaysian economy is likely to see weaker growth, estimated at 4.1%, in 2023 compared to an estimated 8.5% in 2022, reflecting largely the normalisation of technical high-base effects.

Moderating exports, the normalisation of domestic demand, the continued dampening impact of inflation and higher cost of living, and the lagged effects of interest rate increases will weigh on domestic economic growth.

Certainly, the interplay of weakening external environment, the new government’s macro-narratives, domestic inflation and interest rates will ultimately shape Malaysia’s economic growth outlook for 2023.

Export moderation to drag growth this year

Export growth momentum has seen softening in September-November 2022, due to the weakening demand of major manufactured goods such as electronics and electrical products, chemical and chemical products, machinery equipment as well as lower prices of crude oil and crude palm oil (CPO).

We estimate exports to slow down to 1.8% in 2023, from an estimated 26.5% in 2022, reflecting the dampening impact of weakening global demand, easing prices of energy and commodities as well as being challenged by the high-base effects.

We see lower Brent crude oil price (US$95 or RM417.70 per barrel in 2023 versus US$100 or RM439.68 per barrel in 2022); and CPO price (RM3,850 per tonne in 2023 versus RM5,123 per tonne in 2022).

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